SPY broke below 200 day SMA and could have a short squeeze bounce to 133. GLD huge volume up day in anticipation of more QE or whatever acronym they dream up, Gold miners GDX may have bottomed, CDE perking up again. CDE digs the silver out of the ground for 6 bucks and sells it to you for 28, nice biz! During the great depression the gold miners were the only stocks that went up (and went up a lot) Nasdaq 100 is still holding the 2007 breakout (because of AAPL), the only “bright side.”
Update on the great “bond market breakdown” or should we say breakdown to the downside and fake out. This is a textbook example where what everyone thinks is usually wrong and why you should never loose more than 1% of capital on ANY trade! The 10 year bond now will pay you 1.5% for 10 years, great investment. In Switzerland and Germany you actually pay the government to lend them your money or lend at 0%. Interesting times.
This will mean rising interest rates for everything. This will be a great short on any bounce to the 114 to 115 area. I will use the TBT. Have fun!
This is exactly what you want to see for a buy point. All of the buy stop orders were automatically triggered getting everyone in on the trade.
Nasdaq 100 Index – target?
Many of the old technology heavyweights have been on the rise……..
As everyone is predicting the next years events, I was just looking at the most basic stock “buy”strategy, the breakout. Please note the last several breakouts in these market leaders have been great in the past. I just look at the recent performance of these very high expectation stocks and see this……….
Happy New Year!!!
A while ago I noted that the NDX has broken to the upside on the weekly charts above the 2007 highs. That looks to have failed now. We will see if the failure holds as that is your “tell”. The Gold stocks failed the break out real bad (and that was expensive for me). Doctor Benny did not provide the “drugs” that market was expecting. From failed moves com big moves is the saying.
I haven’t looked at the group in a while, but some have broken to new ALL TIME HIGHS. As a trader, these are the ones to buy and hold. New highs are the only indicator you need to tell you the stock is going higher (or at least the best odds). Here is the group and you can pick for yourself. Obviously the GDX is the go to basket and has the biggest names of them all as top holdings. I will be looking into some of them closer this weekend. Remember the only stocks to really go during the great depression were the gold miners! Enjoy! Hopefully this doesn’t mean that coins will become outlawed yet again.
I remember back to around this time last year when we had the death cross where the 50 day SMA had crossed down through the 200 day SMA and everyone was talking about it. It was almost too easy to go short. Everyone is a technical analyst now just like 2009 when we had the “head and shoulders” in June and everyone got short. Both times they burned the shorts worse than an arsonist to an underwater home. The question is, will it happen again? No one knows if the FED will save the day again or let em’ go now that all the insiders are safely in gold and bonds. Time will tell. Sure feels pretty ugly out there but I was wrong twice. Will short into bounces until further notice.